I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here. There’s value on the favourite, but we’ll see if playoff hockey makes that difficult. Colorado +325 – 1 percent: I’m very high on Colorado and have the team’s odds at +233.Futures and series prices are the name of the game here and here’s what I would recommend based on the model. There’s no edge on today’s lone game, but it is a good time to talk about the playoffs which start tomorrow. Maybe next year we’ll turn towards recency a little sooner. It was an absolute roller coaster getting there, but we’ll take it. Neither missing time would be enough to create an edge for either side.,Īn absolutely massive night to close out the season puts us at +20 units on the year. My line above assumes Brayden Point and Andre Burakovsky play. Hoping tonight is the night, but wouldn’t be mad if this series was extended. Good for the model, but not fun! At the very least, we’re one game away from cashing on our Avalanche Cup futures which is nice. Potentially the last game of the season and we’re pretty much right at the midpoint. Enjoy the game! (I’m at -112 Colorado if Andre Burakovsky plays). If you see a different line the Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to. Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.įor optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. and 12:00 p.m.įor those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still holds up. This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 a.m.

Reddit nhl sports betting